Kenya is staring at a possible spike in food prices and an acute rice shortage if the courts uphold a petition seeking to block the importation of 500,000 metric tonnes of duty-free rice. The Kerugoya court is set to give directions tomorrow, 15th August 2025 at 2.30pm, on whether to lift conservatory orders obtained by a farmers’ party challenging the Cabinet’s decision.
According to an affidavit by Agriculture and Livestock Development Cabinet Secretary Sen. Mutahi Kagwe, Kenya’s annual demand for rice stands at about 1.3 million metric tonnes (MT) against a domestic production of just 20% , leaving a deficit of more than 80 percent roughly 1 million MT that is bridged mainly through imports.
The CS warned that the current retail price of Grade 1 milled white rice has already surged to between KSh 190 and KSh 220 per kilogram, a steep rise from last year’s duty-free period average of KSh 150 per kilogram. If duty-free imports are blocked, he said, prices are likely to soar further, deepening the cost-of-living crisis.
Projections show that Kenya’s rice consumption per capita in 2025 is expected to reach 29 kilograms, with the population estimated at 54.79 million. This translates to a national requirement of about 1.5 million MT of rice for the year, or roughly 125,000 MT per month. The country will need about 625,000 MT between July and December 2025 alone.
The affidavit further reveals that the Kenya National Trading Corporation (KNTC) has signed contracts with the Mwea Rice Growers Cooperative to mop up local stocks for onward distribution to government institutions. However, available stocks from farmers currently stand at only 20,000 (50kg) bags, against a projected demand of more than 350,000 bags for key government institutions as stated below:
1.Ministry of Education – 130,000 bags (Komboka)
2.Special Programmes – 90,000 bags (Komboka)
3.State Department for Correctional Services – 60,000 bags (Sindano)
4.Kenya Defence Forces – 40,000 bags (SPR)
Other agencies such as the Administration Police, General Service Unit, National Youth Service, and Kenya Police Service also have substantial rice needs.
“The importation is necessary to stabilize prices and avert a potential food crisis,” Kagwe emphasized, warning that without duty-free imports, both household consumers and critical public institutions could face severe shortages.
