By Cecilia Chiluba/Zambia/Lusaka
Zambia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could shrink by about 6 percent annually by 2050 if climate risks remain unaddressed, according to the Zambia Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR).
Launched in Lusaka today, the CCDR provides an integrated assessment of how climate risks could influence Zambia’s development path, warning that climate shocks such as droughts are constraining agricultural productivity, disrupting energy supply, and weakening labour productivity.
According to the report, Zambia is among the most climate-vulnerable economies in Eastern and Southern Africa, with drought risk projected to increase fivefold by mid-century under a dry/hot scenario, with over 70% of the population living on less than US$3 a day.
Speaking during the launch, World Bank Country Manager Dr. Achim Fock noted that climate change is already affecting Zambia’s development trajectory, with significant implications for growth, livelihoods, and public finances.
“Climate change is no longer a distant or abstract risk. It is already shaping economic outcomes, livelihoods, and public finances,” Dr. Fock said. “Without reform, these impacts will intensify over time, placing a growing drag on growth and poverty reduction.”
He however, observed that the CCDR outlines an alternative development pathway that combines climate resilience with accelerated economic growth, anchored on increased private sector participation, emphasized that the report should serve as a road-map for action rather than a theoretical framework.
“The CCDR shows that accelerating development and addressing climate risks is not a trade-off. Private investment in sectors such as energy, water, transport, agriculture, and mining is critical,” Dr. Fock added.
The report further sets out practical recommendations across key sectors, including resilient rural livelihoods, low-carbon urban development, green industrial growth, and human capital development.
In his keynote address, Zambia’s Minister of Green Economy and Environment, Mike Mposha, said the findings highlight the growing economic threat posed by climate change, particularly under a business-as-usual scenario.
“The report highlights that, under a business-as-usual pathway, climate change could reduce Zambia’s Gross Domestic Product by approximately 6 percent annually by 2050, while exacerbating rural poverty,” he said.
He, however said the report provides an evidence-based road-map to support policy reforms, investment decisions, and private sector participation aimed at strengthening economic resilience and sustaining long-term growth.
At the same event, Minister of Finance and National Planning, Dr. Situmbeko Musokotwane, who was represented by Permanent Secretary for Planning and Administration, Prudence Kaoma, emphasized the need for credible, data-driven analysis to drive the country’s response to climate change.
“We need credible, data-driven analysis to guide our response, and this report precisely delivers that. It will complement government efforts in policy formulation and resource mobilization,” Dr. Musokotwane said.
He noted that the National Planning Framework incorporates the National Green Growth Strategy to align development with resilient, climate-compatible growth, targeting sustained real growth of 6% to 10%.
Meanwhile, International Finance Corporation (IFC) Country Manager for Zambia, Malawi and Ethiopia, Madalo Minofu, called for coordinated efforts to mobilize private capital at scale and accelerate Zambia’s transition to a green economy, underscoring the critical role of the private sector in implementing the recommendations of the report.
The report underscores Zambia’s commitment to integrating climate resilience into its economic planning, ensuring that sustainable growth and adaptation measures go hand in hand.
