By Cecilia Chiluba/Zambia/Lusaka
Zambia’s population is projected to reach 39.9 million in 2047, with the female population expected to consistently continue being higher than the males.
This represents a demographic shift characterized by decelerating annual growth rates, increased urbanization, and rising life expectancy.
According to Zambia Statistics Agency (ZamStats), these trends underscore the critical need for evidence-based planning and resource allocation to effectively address the socioeconomic demands of a growing and urbanizing society.
“Zambia’s population size is projected to be 39.9 million in 2047, according to the current mid-year medium-variant projections.The population will increase to 39,859,562 in 2047 from 20,986,170 in 2023,” ZamStats Statistician General, Sheila Mudenda said.
She told Journalists at a media briefing that the rational for making the Population projections are one of the key products produced from the 2022 Census of Population and Housing.
“Such projections provide estimates of future population size, age structure, and distribution, which are essential for informed decision-making,” she stated.
Ms. Mudenda said policymakers, planners, and researchers use population projections for planning and resource allocation during the intercensal period.
She explained that population projections serve as denominators for calculating key indicators such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, labour force participation rates, child immunization coverage rates, school enrolment rates and other socio-economic and demographic indicators.
Overall, Zambia is expected to experience an average annual growth rate of 2.7 percent throughout the projection period 2023-2049, with rural areas averaging 2.3 percent and urban areas averaging 3.0 percent.
While Zambia’s total population is increasing, the pace at which the population is growing will steadily decline.
Ms. Mudenda explained that the average annual population growth rate is expected to drop from 3.1 percent in 2023 to 2.2 percent in 2047.
She revealed that by region, urban areas will consistently maintain the highest annual average growth rates, from 3.4 percent in 2023 to 2.6 percent in 2047, while rural growth is projected to decline from 2.8 percent to 1.7 percent over the same projection period.
“Zambia’s population is not only growing in numbers but is also becoming a more urbanized society. About half of the country’s population is expected to be residing in urban areas by 2047. In 2023, 45.4 percent of the population was residing in urban areas. In 2047, this is projected to rise to 49.5 percent,” Ms. Mudenda said.
She also noted a steady upward trend in life expectancy for both males and females in Zambia, with Male life expectancy projected to rise by 6.6 years from 64.2 years in 2023 to 70.8 years in 2047, while that of females is projected to increase by 6.2 years from 69.6 years to 75.8 years over the same period.
